I tried to plot the number of earthquakes for between before and after the big earthquake

2016.04.21.Thu

Hello, everyone!
How are you?

To the evacuating people at the Kumamoto-Oita Earthquake, I really pray for the earliest recovery of your usual lives.

I understand that earthquake forecasting is very difficult even by the authorities.
But today I tried one analysis from the standpoint of a citizen.

I tried to figure graphs by which any pre sign for the big earthquake might be seen.
So I plotted the number of earthquakes per day for between before and after the Kumamoto-Oita Earthquake.
The data were cited from the database of earthquake at Yahoo Japan about those occured within the Kumamoto-Oita area.
Please see Fig.1.


Fig.1. Number of earthquakes at Kumamoto-Oita Earthquake (2016)

Nothing particular is seen for five months until April 14th.

Then I plotted samely for the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11th, 2011.
The data were also from Yahoo Japan about those occurred within the offshore of the East Japan area.
Please see Fig.2.


Fig.2. Number of earthquakes at Great East Japan Earthquake (2011)

I could not see very clear signs before March 11th.
However, the following two points may be remarkable.

1. On March 9th a big earthquake of Magnitude 7.2 occurred, then two days after the huge earthquake of Magnitude 9.0 occurred.
Does this resemble the phenomenon at the Kumamoto Earthquake?
Most people in Kumamoto thought the aftershocks of the earthquake on April 14th should settle soon, however, the bigger quake hit them on April 16th.
The Meteorological Agency commented that the one on April 16th be the main shock.

Similarly, could we think that the earthquake on March 9th, 2011 was a foreshock of the main shock on March 11th?

2. Total number of earthquakes per month was around 10 before, however, in February (ie, the previous month) it was 18.

Of course, we cannot lead any strong conclusion only from the above observations.
But at least we can say that if we encounter a big earthquake, soon after another bigger one might come.
We never forget this possibility.

Such pre signs of an earthquake could probably be differently seen due to its mechanism of earthquake, its size and so on.

Please have your best safeguards against earthquakes.

Seniority system seems more firm after all

2016.04.01.Fri

Hello, all of you.
The new fiscal year has started.
I think that many of you have started in your new environment.
I want you to do your best by all means.

The cherry blossoms have become in full bloom, but the weather is not so good today.
How are you doing?

By the way, looking over the merit system and the result-based human resource management which were introduced from US, I feel that they are not so good in Japanese companies from my long experience.
In the first place the ability of a human has very many divergences and is individual, so people cannot measure it so easy.
Still further, since a person evaluates a person, is the result really tied to the right person in the right place?
Of course it may turn out good, but I think that there are many cases that cause totally reverse results with similar probabilities.

On the contrary, the people who concentrate a plan to (only) get on the evaluation increase.
Then, people saying, "I think in this way" vividly who are originally normal decrease, and behaviors of avoidance of responsibility increase.

In this way a winner-loser situation for the merit system and the result-based human resource management seems to be born as a result and cause the social polarization.
。
After all, it may be stochastically said that both the ability and the personality grow up as the age increases.
Then could it be said that the seniority system is more firm?
And those waste and backward maneuvers may decrease, generous opinions may increase, and the whole company may grow up.
And our society may become such that many people can work there.

But in the case of a company like a venture which is born lately I think that choosing a best person who can lead and realize its business model should be prioritized rather than adopting the seniority system.

Today I tried a multiple recording of The Long and Winding Road.
I had done it several times before, but concentrated on modifying the prats of piano and strings today.